Until this week, the Taliban distanced itself from al Qaeda in one respect: It never openly threatened to carry its insurgency outside home ground in Afghanistan. In Pakistan too, Taliban spokesmen were careful never to publicly admit that its operations were guided by the drive for regime change in Islamabad. The Pakistan branch insisted that its ire was directed against fellow-Muslims who harmed Islam by collaborating with the United States in the war it waged on the true faith.

Yesterday, Nov. 17, for the first time in its history the Afghan Taliban threatened to strike in Paris unless French troops withdrew from the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) fighting the insurgency in Afghanistan.

The threat was delivered by a Taliban military leader, identified as Mullah Faruq, over Al-Arabiya television. He said France could expect a response in its capital if French troops were not evacuated.

Backed by video footage, Faruq claimed the Taliban was responsible for the lethal ambush 40 miles south of Kabul which killed 10 French troops and wounded more than a dozen on Aug. 18. Some of the insurgents were shown wearing the uniforms of the dead French soldiers.

France has around 2,600 soldiers deployed in Afghanistan since president Nicolas Sarkozy decided to add 700 troops this year in response to Washington’s plea.

The Taliban is not known to have operational capabilities anywhere in West Europe, unless al Qaeda is willing to provide them on loan. Not since 2004 was a European nation threatened with retaliation for refusing to pull its troops out of Afghanistan.

Spain was warned then and, after failing to comply with the demand, paid the price of the Madrid train bombings which left 191 dead and 1,757 people injured.

In the general election three days later, the Spanish voter ousted Jose Maria Aznar’s conservative government which flouted al Qaeda’s demand and voted in the Socialist Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who brought the Spanish contingent home three months later.

According to counter-terror sources, the Taliban threat has seriously rattled the Elysée and French intelligence. They fear the peril is real and could be no more than weeks away.

Like in Madrid four years ago - and in the London transport attacks a year later - the assailants would not have to be imported; enough are home-grown. More than a million Muslims live in Paris and its suburbs.

The experts agree that all the preventive security measures in the world need luck to work and even the best are not 100 percent proof against a well-organized professionally-planned terrorist attack.

Taliban’s positions are growing more radical as more voices in and around the US president-elect Barack Obama’s transition team in Washington call for talks with Taliban to negotiate an end to the Afghan war and draw the insurgents away from their ties with al Qaeda.

Sunday, Nov. 16, president Hamid Karzai appealed to Taliban leaders to open immediate talks with his government. He promised Mullah Omar full guarantees for his personal safety in Kabul.

Karzai has offered Omar safety guarantees before, but this time we went as far as to announce that if the United States and the rest of the coalition fighting in Afghanistan refuse to back him up, they would have to fire him.

Taliban rejected the Afghan president’s olive branch on the spot and stuck to its guns that there could be no negotiations until every last foreign troop was gone from Afghan soil.

Monday, Nov. 17, Washington disassociated itself from Karzai’s initiative.

The White House has seen no positive response from Mullah Mohammad Omar after President Karzai’s offer of reconciliation, said a statement from spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

“We are not seeing any indication from Mullah Omar that he is ready to renounce violence, break all ties with al Qaeda and support the Afghan government and constitution. We are hopeful that reconcilable Taliban will lay down arms…” he said. “…sadly so far they continue to attack innocent civilians and coalition forces on a regular basis.”

The next day, Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, suddenly announced that US troops in Iraq have begun practicing transfers to Afghanistan through Jordan and Turkey, to fight Taliban and al Qaeda.

But he then came out with this statement: “It’s my belief that you negotiate from a position of strength and right now the Taliban is doing pretty well,” he said. “I think that’s important as we discuss how we negotiate, and with whom we negotiate, that we do so from a position of strength.”

Our sources interpret the US military chief’s comment as a message to Taliban that, despite Karzai’s offer, Washington stands by its determination to pursue the war until reinforcements arrive from Iraq and tilt the balance “to a more favorable position for the Americans.” This process could take two or three years, so Mullen is really saying that negotiations with Taliban are not possible before then.

The controversy between Karzai, Mullen and Mullah Omar therefore will therefore be placed on the pile waiting for Barack Obama to reach his presidential in-tray.

Our military expert say’s that it was only a matter of time before the Americans felt they must strike deep inside Pakistan to reach the havens which the Taliban and al Qaeda have relocated inland beyond Waziristan.

The U.S. strategy may be to slowly creep closer and closer to al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries until UAV (U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle) airstrikes in in Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province’s  target-rich environment seem routine now.

We are also likely to see additional attacks in NWFP districts located along the north-south expanse of the FATA. These districts have seen considerable Taliban activity over the past year or so while Islamabad’s writ in the area has diminished. Indeed, this “Talibanization” has spread further east into settled areas such as Peshawar, the NWFP capital. A more aggressive U.S. campaign in these areas will incite increasing public outrage and make Islamabad’s job of maintaining stability that much more difficult. Ultimately, the United States is much more capable of going after Islamist militants in Pakistan’s border region than the Pakistani army is, a fact not lost on Islamabad.

From al Qaeda's standpoint, the NWFP is quite hospitable on other levels as well: Mountain peaks ranging up to 14,000 feet above sea level, sparse roads, and most of those gravel-top, make it a very difficult area in which to mount standard military operations. Moreover, the people native to this region are a religiously conservative lot, with a potential sympathy for the jihadist cause, which might explain countermilitancy operations now being conducted in the areas of Swat and Dir in NWFP.

The United States is currently in political flux as President George W. Bush closes out his administration and President-elect Barack Obama readies his. Unable to craft and implement a comprehensive strategy to play out the end game against al Qaeda and the Taliban, the Bush administration has used an interim strategy of increased UAV strikes while a conclusive strategy awaits an Obama administration.